The Inexperienced Future Index is a rating of 76 international locations and territories on their progress and dedication towards constructing a low carbon future. It measures the diploma to which their economies are pivoting to wash power, business, agriculture, and society by innovation, coverage, and funding in renewables.
The analysis for The Inexperienced Future Index 2022 concluded in January 2022, previous to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That battle is more likely to have far-reaching and ongoing implications for the sustainability efforts of nations all around the globe. Whereas MIT Know-how Evaluation Insights has tried to relay probably the most correct info potential, we will anticipate the financial, social, and political local weather to proceed to shift.
The Inexperienced Future Index 2022 is the second annual comparative rating of 76 nations and territories (representing about 95% of world GDP) on their skill to develop a sustainable, low-carbon future for his or her economies and societies. Because it was in its inaugural yr, the index was developed by in-depth major and secondary analysis processes. Secondary analysis included the overview of a number of hundred articles, analysis experiences and papers in scientific literature, and information and authorized evaluation journals. Major analysis was carried out by greater than 20 in-depth interviews with international consultants on local weather change, inexperienced power, and decarbonization applied sciences.
This analysis course of knowledgeable our analysis and number of 22 distinct units of country-level information to comprise the symptoms of the index. The info got here from a variety of publicly out there sources, together with the Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA), the Worldwide Renewable Vitality Company, the World Financial institution, the United Nations Meals and Agriculture Affiliation (FAO), the World Mental Property Group, and the Local weather Motion Tracker (CAT).
The place it was essential to fill in gaps, we expanded and refined present datasets by conducting extra detailed analysis on chosen international locations and consulted with international consultants. This was accomplished within the local weather coverage and carbon finance initiatives indicators, and in new indicators added to this yr’s index, particularly in defining carbon seize and sequestration “readiness” and in creating estimates for the penetration of electrical autos (see the part “What’s completely different within the 2022 Inexperienced Future Index?”).
The indicator datasets have been changed into ranked scores in certainly one of two methods. For quantitative metrics, akin to progress charges or values, every information level for every nation was scaled up or down utilizing minimum-maximum normalization to develop a spread of scores throughout all international locations for that indicator. For information that was largely qualitative or non-standard, a rating categorization system was developed, and every nation was assigned a rating. As soon as all 22 indicators have been scored, they have been organized into 5 separate pillars. The construction of this second version of the Inexperienced Future Index stays largely the identical because the 2021 version, with a number of indicators added to enhance its protection of sustainable actions (see the part “What’s completely different within the 2022 Inexperienced Future Index?”)
Pillar 1: Carbon emissions – This pillar measures how successfully international locations are curbing carbon dioxide emissions general, in addition to in key sectors. The indications inside this pillar are:
- Complete carbon dioxide emissions in 2019, in hundreds of thousands of tons, relative to GDP
- Common annual change in carbon dioxide emissions between 2014 and 2019, each in whole, and for every of the business, transportation, and agriculture sectors
Pillar 2: Vitality transition– This pillar assesses the contribution and progress price of renewable power sources, and now contains nuclear energy. The indications inside this pillar are:
- The expansion of renewable power manufacturing in gigawatt-hours between 2014 and 2019
- The share that power from renewable sources made up in last power consumption in 2018
- The expansion of nuclear power manufacturing in gigawatt-hours between 2014 and 2019
- The share that power from nuclear era made up in last power consumption in 2018
Pillar 3: Inexperienced society – This pillar measures the efforts made by authorities, business, and society to advertise inexperienced practices. The indications measure:
- The variety of LEED-certified inexperienced buildings in 2020, per million city inhabitants
- The share of strong waste that’s recycled as a proportion of whole waste managed
- The online change in forestation between 2015 and 2020: an indicator that mixes the change in acreage of forested land by naturally regenerated major progress, and modifications by deliberate afforestation tasks
- The inventory electrical passenger autos per million city inhabitants in 2020
Pillar 4: Clear innovation – This pillar measures the innovation setting for constructing alow-carbon future, such because the relative penetration of inexperienced patents, funding in cross-border clear power, and funding in meals expertise. The indications measure:
- Development in inexperienced mental property, measured by the rise in patents registered for sustainable applied sciences or processes and options between 2013 and 2018, relative to GDP
- The quantity of funding a rustic obtained and offered for clear power efforts between 2014 and 2018, as a proportion of GDP
- The variety of meals expertise (“foodtech”) startups per million of city inhabitants
Pillar 5: Local weather coverage – This pillar measures the ambition and effectiveness of local weather coverage, together with carbon financing initiatives, sustainable agriculture coverage, and using pandemic restoration spending to realize a inexperienced financial restoration. The indications embody:
- A qualitative analysis of coverage motion to achieve acknowledged local weather objectives in compliance with the Paris Settlement and Nationally Decided Contributions (NDCs)
- A qualitative analysis of coverage and regulatory frameworks to advertise carbon seize and sequestration efforts (CCS)
- A qualitative evaluation of measures taken by every nation to create monetary incentives for companies and traders to assign a price to carbon emissions, by the levying of carbon taxes and the creation of a marketplace for carbon bonds and emissions buying and selling programs
- A qualitative evaluation of sustainable agriculture insurance policies, assessing for comprehensiveness and effectiveness of implementation
- An evaluation of the diploma to which covid-19 restoration stimulus packages will speed up decarbonization, leading to a “pandemic pivot” alongside two measures:
- Vitality transition influence—scoring international locations by the proportion of stimulus spending directed at new power initiatives versus fossil gasoline tasks
- Inexperienced stimulus initiatives—Scoring international locations by the share of whole stimulus spending allotted to sustainable, low-carbon key public infrastructure tasks (akin to transport, water, public areas, and data)
These pillars are constructed to comprehensively consider every nation’s inexperienced future throughout two dimensions: the progress they’ve made on attaining carbon discount objectives and different climate-friendly societal actions, and the ambitions that the nation should obtain to take care of a carbon-neutral financial system. The primary 4 “progress pillars” account for 60% of the weighting within the index. The fifth pillar—local weather coverage—measures the extent to which funding and coverage actions are channeled into inexperienced infrastructure initiatives and laws frameworks. These elements, we imagine, collectively present the first impetus towards establishing and sustaining a rustic’s inexperienced future, and thus this pillar accounts for 40% of the Index weighting.
MIT Know-how Evaluation was based on the Massachusetts Institute of Know-how in 1899. We’re a number one voice on local weather change points with a devoted matter space on our web site for the worldwide local weather emergency, together with improvements that will speed up decarbonization and nationwide local weather coverage initiatives.
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